Today the Clinton campaign released a PowerPoint presentation to argue that the superdelegates should pick Hillary over Obama because she won more of "the tough districts," which they define merely as those that voted for Bush in 2004 and voted in a Freshman Democrat in the 2006 midterm elections.
I took a look at their list, and frankly it isn't a very good measure of anyone's strength. Several of the seats listed aren't considered by anyone I know of to be at risk of going back to the GOP in the fall. Several others are in Clinton's (and my) home state of New York, so her victory in those districts wasn't necessarily a show of her strength over Obama in a General Election.
I do, however, think that if Clinton were much stronger than Obama in the "tough" swing districts, it would give her a compelling argument to use when talking to superdelegates. So I went to the Rothenberg Political Report to look at their 2008 House Ratings to find out which Congressional Districts really are in play this year. I used USA Today's district-by-district primary and caucus results to find out which competitive districts Obama won and how many Clinton won. Here's what I found.
Odd that one of them was a Southern state that's in play for the General Election and for a Senate pick-up.
Using CNN exit polls, I've mimicked Jerome's front-page graph, which showed Obama's growing margin of victory among African-American voters over the course of the primary season. Jerome's post asked whether or not Obama's percentage of the white vote has been decreasing. Let's take a look...
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