Obama Only Won The White Vote In A Few States!

Odd that one of them was a Southern state that's in play for the General Election and for a Senate pick-up.

Using CNN exit polls, I've mimicked Jerome's front-page graph, which showed Obama's growing margin of victory among African-American voters over the course of the primary season. Jerome's post asked whether or not Obama's percentage of the white vote has been decreasing. Let's take a look...

Non-South:
State            Clinton Margin Of Victory Over Obama Among Whites
Nevada*^         +18
Arizona^         +15
California       +1
Connecticut      +1
Delaware         +16
Massachusetts    +18
Missouri'       +18
New Jersey       +35
Wisconsin^       -9
Ohio'           +30
Pennsylvania     +26
Indiana          +20

South:
State            Clinton Margin Of Victory Over Obama Among Whites
South Carolina*^ +12
Alabama^         +47
Georgia^         +10
Tennessee^       +41
Louisiana^       +28
Maryland         +10
Virginia^        -5
Texas^           +11
Mississippi^     +49
North Carolina^  +24

*=states where Edwards won 10% or more of the white vote
^=states where Clinton would lose to McCain, according to the current MyDD Electoral Vote map
'=states where Obama would lose to McCain but Clinton would win, according to the current MyDD Electoral Vote map

My admittedly biased analysis is that these exit polls numbers show Obama has not become gradually weaker among white Democrats in states that are in play for the fall, in spite of "bittergate" and the Rev. Wright escapades.

Of the 14 states where Obama lost the white vote by 15% or more, 7 are states where neither Obama nor Clinton are currently projected to win the fall. Obama is expected to win Delaware, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Indiana, in spite of Clinton's significant edge among white Democratic primary voters. Obama's "white voter problem" looks like it could potentially rear it's ugly head in Ohio and Missouri in the fall, but the current EV map shows that Obama could still win without either of those states as long as he can win in Michigan or New Mexico.

As far as the south is concerned, Obama actually beat Clinton among white voters in Virginia, which is arguably the best Southern pick-up opportunity for Democrats this year.

So in answer to Jerome's question: No, Obama's percentage of the white vote has not been trending down with each contest. Two of his worst showings were on February 5th in New Jersey and Alabama, and he did only slighly worse one month later in the deep red, deep south state of Mississippi, which hasn't voted for a Democratic President since... well, it's been a long time. Obama did about as well among white voters in North Carolina and Indiana as he did in Louisiana and Massachusetts back in February, long before anyone had ever heard Jeremiah Wright say "God Damn America."

Now if you want to start fighting about whether white voters should somehow count more than black voters, I kindly invite you to work for the appeal of the 15th amendment to the Constitution.

Display:


The numbers were thrown out the window (2.00 / 3)

long ago. You'll get nowhere with them. This is about the destruction of the Democratic party from within.


My candidate lost fair and square. So did yours. Get over it and let's kick McSame's ass!
by RLMcCauley on Thu May 08, 2008 at 01:52:20 PM EST

Re: The numbers were thrown out the window (1.00 / 0)


 The destruction of the party started when they put that fool Dean in.
Wisdom Is The Reward For Listening Over A Lifetime
by gunner on Thu May 08, 2008 at 02:19:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The numbers were thrown out the window (2.00 / 1)

Yeah... everything sure went downhill for us starting in 2005... ;-P


by CA Pol Junkie on Thu May 08, 2008 at 02:23:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

TIP JAR! (none / 0)

Better late than never?


by Hatch on Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:58:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The numbers were thrown out the window (2.00 / 2)

Im trolling this idiot for being dumb.

here is so more 1 liners for you:

"Howard Dean, that SOB, he helped win those 2006 seats, how dare he!"

"He goes on Fox news and calls them out for being biased.  no backbone!  spit on his grave!"


Unable to rec or rate

Read this: http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/5/15/1427 30/254

by GeorgeP922 on Thu May 08, 2008 at 02:26:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Riiiiight, because... (2.00 / 1)

The WORST thing that could happen to the Democratic Party is for us to have shots at picking up House and Senate seats and governors' chairs all over the country.
That really sucks. I'd so much rather us work on the 50% + 1 strategy that lets us lose every year.
Who the hell wants to win? If you lose, you're off the hook, you have no responsibility to try to make things better.
I wonder if that's really what so many of these Clinton supporters are so upset about: with Clinton, they don't have to lift a finger, since she tells us that as president, she'll take care of everything for us; we can just go about our merry way and not give a shit about anything but our own petty lives, since she's in chargs. With Obama (and Edwards before him), we have to do a little of the work ourselves, since he explicitly says he can't change things on his own.
Responsibility is scary.
ооо
by Mumphrey on Thu May 08, 2008 at 02:50:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

The Clintonites (2.00 / 5)


   are in one of two camps...the desperation camp and the mourning camp.

  Those in the desperation camp are throwing anything and everything out there to try and derail Obama. Wright didn't work, Bittergate didn't work..is he elite b/c he drinks OJ rather than coffee didn't work...so they'll keep trying.

  The mourning camp has recognized defeat and is simply asking that Obama supporters win with grace (which is a perfectly reasonable request).

  Guess which camp more of the MyDD Clintonites are in?


by southernman on Thu May 08, 2008 at 01:56:56 PM EST

Re: Obama Only Won The White Vote In A Few States! (2.00 / 1)

I'm sorry.  Are you using logic?  Or trying to be rational?  As Rachel Maddox would say, the Clinton campaign has been operating in a post-rational phase for quite some time.  All your numbers prove is that statistics have a decidedly Obama bias.  Much like logic and reality.


by The Distillery on Thu May 08, 2008 at 02:05:12 PM EST

Re: Obama Only Won The White Vote In A Few States! (none / 0)

Rec'd for awsomeness.  Thanks for the work.


by NewOaklandDem on Thu May 08, 2008 at 02:08:12 PM EST

Re: Obama Only Won The White Vote In A Few States! (none / 0)

Great diary!  Rec'd.  It's amazing how much traction false trends can get in the media and the blogosphere.


I like baked beans.
by SpideyDem on Thu May 08, 2008 at 02:10:35 PM EST

Re: Obama Only Won The White Vote In A Few States! (none / 0)

If he is getting 90% of the AA vote and the majority of them are in the Democratic party, how does he expand his base?


Wisdom Is The Reward For Listening Over A Lifetime
by gunner on Thu May 08, 2008 at 02:10:43 PM EST

Simple (2.00 / 2)

By doing better with white Democrats, especially older folks. Which shouldn't be much of a problem once the Clintons, Ed Rendell, Evan Bayh, Ted Strickland, Al Gore, John Edwards, and lots of other prominent white Democrats are out there campaigning for him instead of complaining about how he didn't that well with white voters in the primary.


by Hatch on Thu May 08, 2008 at 02:18:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Simple (2.00 / 1)

Us older folks have seen this movie before. The rise & fall of mcgovern.


Wisdom Is The Reward For Listening Over A Lifetime
by gunner on Thu May 08, 2008 at 02:25:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Simple (2.00 / 1)

Wow, I guess this must be whats left of the David Duke campain advisors.

Or maybe you guys are just republicans,  they love making white people scared.


Unable to rec or rate

Read this: http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/5/15/1427 30/254

by GeorgeP922 on Thu May 08, 2008 at 02:28:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Bad Analogy (none / 0)

McGovern was running against an incumbent, et cetera. More here.


by Hatch on Thu May 08, 2008 at 02:28:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Only Won The White Vote In A Few States! (1.00 / 1)

face it, he is still weak amongst whites on the whole. Barack Hussein Obama is going to get landslided if he cannot do better, as he is also doing poorly with latinos. he is not a messiah. the general election voters are not as liberal primary voters when it comes to wright


"there is nothing wrong with America that cannot be cured by what is right in America"-William Jefferson Clinton, forty-second President of the United States
by DiamondJay on Thu May 08, 2008 at 02:11:15 PM EST

Re: Obama Only Won The White Vote In A Few States! (none / 0)

Now that I have turned Independent, I would love to see the looks on their faces if she announced her Independent run for the WH.


Wisdom Is The Reward For Listening Over A Lifetime
by gunner on Thu May 08, 2008 at 02:15:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Only Won The White Vote In A Few States! (2.00 / 2)

It would be worth a November Loss if she took all the DLC and Lieberman to a new party.   It would be like a Clinton Enima to remove all the crap from the Democratic Party.


Victorious warriors win first and then go to war, while defeated warriors go to war first and then seek to win. ~ Sun Tzu
by Tumult on Thu May 08, 2008 at 02:24:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Only Won The White Vote In A Few States! (none / 0)

oh oh that would be AWESOME

no hillary just needs to join Lieberman's awesome Independant Demcrat Party.

We need to stop wasting our time with HRC and dismantle the DLC, who the hell is funding them anyways?


Unable to rec or rate

Read this: http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/5/15/1427 30/254

by GeorgeP922 on Thu May 08, 2008 at 02:36:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Only Won The White Vote In A Few States! (none / 0)

Well, no, it wouldn't be worth it. We've got a lot to fix that can't afford to wait: climate change for one.


John McCain
by Mandoliniment on Thu May 08, 2008 at 02:53:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Only Won The White Vote In A Few States! (2.00 / 1)

Good thing the only people who refer to him as a messiah are Clinton supporters and Republicans, then.

Nice work with the Hussein thing. Keep pushing that.  He's obviously a terrorist.


John McCain
by Mandoliniment on Thu May 08, 2008 at 02:30:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

its his middle name (1.00 / 1)

why can't I say it? I can say Hillary Rodham Clinton, George Walker Bush, Barack Hussein Obama


"there is nothing wrong with America that cannot be cured by what is right in America"-William Jefferson Clinton, forty-second President of the United States
by DiamondJay on Thu May 08, 2008 at 02:38:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: its his middle name (2.00 / 2)

Hillary Rodham Clinton publicly refers to herself as such.

No one writes "George Walker Bush" in casual reference to W.

The only people who write "Barack Hussein Obama" are people who want to associate him with scary terrorists. You can do what you want, but when you lie down with dogs you get up with fleas.


John McCain
by Mandoliniment on Thu May 08, 2008 at 02:50:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: its his middle name (2.00 / 1)

Ask yourself why you want to use his middle name.  Therein lies the answer to why it is inappropriate.  The same argument could be made to discourage you from getting up in the morning.


by pbonefullgrown on Thu May 08, 2008 at 02:52:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Caucus results (2.00 / 1)

Of course, there were no exit polls in caucus states.  From the lopsided results it's clear Obama had substantially more support than Clinton among white voters in Maine, Minnesota, North Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Colorado, Wyoming, Idaho, and Washington.  We'll probably be adding Oregon, Montana, and South Dakota to the list as well.


by CA Pol Junkie on Thu May 08, 2008 at 02:20:33 PM EST

Jerome Left Off A Lot Of States (none / 0)

I only looked at the states Jerome listed, which didn't include states like Illinois where Obama most definitely won the white vote, and states like New York and Arkansas where Clinton had a home team advantage. Which is fair. Although if I were Jerome I would've left off New Jersey as well, since a big chunk of Clinton's white vote advantage there almost certainly came because she represents the neighboring state in the Senate.


by Hatch on Thu May 08, 2008 at 02:25:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Caucus results (none / 0)

Yes, as a WA state voter, Obama had ZERO trouble with the white vote here, "Hard-Working" or otherwise.

What is so sneaky is, what Jerome et all is doing is taking ONE section of the white vote, and trying to apply this blanket rule, that Obama can't win whites?

They do this in conjunction with WEIRD ass conjectures like: Obama wins 90% of the black vote and that shows a problem....

Then, they twist the two statments together, and come up with their latest "Obama is unelectable" argument?

But, with Obama winning NC by enough to make sure he can't lost the popular vote EVEN IF they seat FL and MI intact, it is the only argument they have left?

The clock is running out, and this is the last hail mary pass.


"Either you're the butcher Or the lamb but even so, Everybody pays as they go-Jakob Dylan"
by WashStateBlue on Thu May 08, 2008 at 02:33:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Caucus results (2.00 / 1)

first of all, those states were all before jerry wright. Second, we are never going to win Nebraska, Kansas, Wyoming, Idaho, North Dakota, and Utah, which have all not gone Dem since Lyndon Johnson '64. he only won those states because they have gone GOP for so long that the few Dems that exist there figured "why not try someone other than the Clintons, who everyone else in the state hates" and no one expected Obama to honestly use those states to make his case, as we will never win them, so Hillary didn't show up there. If Wright had happened before those states, he could have lost those states.


"there is nothing wrong with America that cannot be cured by what is right in America"-William Jefferson Clinton, forty-second President of the United States
by DiamondJay on Thu May 08, 2008 at 02:43:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Look At The Numbers (none / 0)

Jeremiah Wright didn't make Obama lose ground with white voters at all, but the scandal may have kept him from winning them over and sewing up the nomination more quickly.


by Hatch on Thu May 08, 2008 at 02:51:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Turn Nebraska Purple! (none / 0)

... Kerry tried. Obama will do it.

yay for proportional representation!!!!

You think those states are bigoted? Man, you got another thing comin'...


His head is bowed. He thinks of men and kings. Yea, when the sick world cries, how can he sleep?
by RisingTide on Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:08:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Turn Nebraska Purple! (none / 0)

yes I do think most of those states are bigotted considering how hard they have gone Republican since 1968, Nebraska has been won by double digits in every since election, Kansas too, and Bush got high 60's them, which means Kerry got in the 30's. They were also amongst Johnson's weakest wins in 1964


"there is nothing wrong with America that cannot be cured by what is right in America"-William Jefferson Clinton, forty-second President of the United States
by DiamondJay on Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:12:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

We got a democratic governor in kansas (2.00 / 1)

and a senator from nebraska don't we?

Just because someone votes Republican does not make them bigoted. Please don't say that.

I voted Republican last mayoral. I also voted pro-choice, pro-gay, and a few other things.


His head is bowed. He thinks of men and kings. Yea, when the sick world cries, how can he sleep?
by RisingTide on Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:16:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Only Won The White Vote In A Few States! (1.00 / 1)

excellent observation, proving Obama is just a black candidate, and he is not electable divider. Thanks for Diary!


Welcome to a Landslide without white Working class, Latinos, Women, Seniors and holding-on sweeties
by engels on Thu May 08, 2008 at 02:22:18 PM EST

Re: Obama Only Won The White Vote In A Few States! (1.00 / 0)

i meant to say:
Obama is just a black candidate, and he is not electable, and he is the divider
Welcome to a Landslide without white Working class, Latinos, Women, Seniors and holding-on sweeties
by engels on Thu May 08, 2008 at 02:23:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Expected A Few Of These (2.00 / 2)

Yep, Obama is a black guy. The secret's out.

Sometimes black candidates do win, you know.


by Hatch on Thu May 08, 2008 at 02:26:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Expected A Few Of These (2.00 / 1)

What, he's what?!?


John McCain
by Mandoliniment on Thu May 08, 2008 at 02:31:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Expected A Few Of These (2.00 / 1)

shit, this changes everything. we can't be electing the goddamn Negroes.


by jbill on Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:54:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Expected A Few Of These (2.00 / 1)

Wow Hatch, getting uncomfortable with the racists your diary attracts?

Thats how desperate these guys are, attacking obama on his race.

You guys are insulting our whole nation.


Unable to rec or rate

Read this: http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/5/15/1427 30/254

by GeorgeP922 on Thu May 08, 2008 at 02:32:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Only Won The White Vote In A Few States! (none / 0)

Sorry, but that still doesn't make any sense the second time you say it.  He's getting the nomination because he has broad support - he's not Jesse Jackson.


by CA Pol Junkie on Thu May 08, 2008 at 02:28:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Only Won The White Vote In A Few States! (none / 0)

Obama's Black?  Funny, I never realized that before. (snarkity snark)


by NewOaklandDem on Thu May 08, 2008 at 02:29:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Only Won The White Vote In A Few States! (none / 0)

And, he has big ears and he can't bowl?

I'm predicting McGovern type numbers, unless he gets above a 135 average on the lanes?


"Either you're the butcher Or the lamb but even so, Everybody pays as they go-Jakob Dylan"
by WashStateBlue on Thu May 08, 2008 at 02:39:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Only Won The White Vote In A Few States! (1.00 / 1)

most importantly, he cannot govern


Welcome to a Landslide without white Working class, Latinos, Women, Seniors and holding-on sweeties
by engels on Thu May 08, 2008 at 02:59:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Only Won The White Vote In A Few States! (none / 0)

fortunately, the majority of dems disagree with you.


by jbill on Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:55:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Racism (none / 0)

Are we free to slander minorities or ethnicities on this site?

If it is not allowed should we report it.

This guy DiamonJay needs to be watched.

go look at the other diary where he said black votes are not as strong as white votes.

ill get a link, Brb


Unable to rec or rate

Read this: http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/5/15/1427 30/254

by GeorgeP922 on Thu May 08, 2008 at 02:30:55 PM EST

Re: Racism (2.00 / 1)

Yes, I wonder if, at some point, some of the other posters here will look back and go...

Gee, maybe I should NOT have gone there?

On the diary you were referening to, Diamond Jay did imply, that the Black vote had too much influence...but he didn't stop there?

He THEN was speculating what could be done "to fix this problem?"

Someone suggested 3/5s of a vote, and that is the point I hope some of the other Clinton supporter felt a little squeamish at going there with him?

At least, being a life long democrat, I HOPE they felt squeamish.


"Either you're the butcher Or the lamb but even so, Everybody pays as they go-Jakob Dylan"
by WashStateBlue on Thu May 08, 2008 at 02:43:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Black vote did not have too much influence (none / 0)

Solid South had too little. But you don't fix that quick. We'll work on it, okay?


His head is bowed. He thinks of men and kings. Yea, when the sick world cries, how can he sleep?
by RisingTide on Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:10:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Obama Only Won The White Vote In A Few States! (1.00 / 1)

Sure, but if you eliminate the "racist" white vote from Hillary's totals, Obama does much better.  These voters should not count towards any argument that favors Hillary's electability argument.  These people should be rounded up and forced to watch re-runs of Alex Haley's "Roots" come election day.  At which point, if they do not repent their racist ways, they should systematically be given the Ned Beatty "Deliverance" treatment. Either way, their votes shouldn't count.


by pbonefullgrown on Thu May 08, 2008 at 02:47:51 PM EST

Re: Obama Only Won The White Vote In A Few States! (none / 0)

Hey you six-weeks on MyDD, troll-rate anybody you don't like, pathetic excuse of a blogger -

I get so sick of you drive-by, malicious troll-raters.
You expect people to listen to you, but plug your own ears.

Truly pathetic.


by johnnygunn on Mon May 12, 2008 at 04:12:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Only Won The White Vote In A Few States! (none / 0)

PS -

You don't make the above comment any less stereotyping by putting "racist" in quotes.  
You are doing exactly what you accuse others of doing.

But I guess you don't have the ability to see that.


by johnnygunn on Mon May 12, 2008 at 04:13:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Lyndon Johnson's stealing the nom for O (none / 0)

Martin Luther King couldn't sign the Voting Rights Act.




Democratic Candidate, US Senate, Wisconsin 2012
by benmasel on Thu May 08, 2008 at 02:50:35 PM EST

Great job Hatch! (none / 0)

Well researched diary. Thanks for doing this... you should post a tip jar.


by Tatan on Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:06:21 PM EST

Do Democrats normally win a white majority? (none / 0)

Everyone gets to vote here, not just the white folks.  Even if Hillary still had a chance at the Dem nomination, she's killed herself in the general election by using these types of racial tactics.


by SunWolf78 on Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:46:21 PM EST


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